NHL trade grades: Connor Hellebuyck makes the Devils a contender New York Times (Online) Dom Luszczyszyn Devils get : G Connor Hellebuyck. Jets get : G Nico Daws, F Dawson Mercer, F Alexander Command, F Nick Bjugstad, seventh-round pick in 2027, second-round pick in 2029. Dom Luszczyszyn : Goalies are notoriously difficult to predict. That's something almost everyone in hockey knows by now and it's something Devils GM Sunny Mehta made a point of mentioning in an interview earlier this season, citing a reluctance to invest significant assets. “I'm trying to put together a roster and project the future outcomes of hockey players and I just think that the nuances involved at the goaltending position are just considerably different than at forward or defense,” Mehta said . “Relative to the other positions, there tends to be a lot more unpredictability in the results. So that matters to me as the GM when part of my job is allocating resources to not only different positions but different players.” It means there's a difference in what to expect when acquiring the best forward in the world compared to the best goalie in the world. You can set your watch to Connor McDavid scoring a million points. You can't quite do the same with Connor Hellebuyck and last season was a testament to that. What was left unsaid, though, is that just because there's a high level of variance doesn't mean that getting one of the best goalies in the world can't raise a team's baseline. It's just that the impact won't be the same as it would be for the best skater. And though you can't set a watch to how most goalies will perform, those in the upper echelon are generally strong bets to have a higher floor. If last year was Hellebuyck's floor — a GSAx that was still positive — that's still a massive upgrade over what the Devils usually get in net. Through 10 games, Jake Allen and Nico Daws have already allowed 6.4 goals above expected. The ceiling, of course, is enormous. That's the bet Mehta is making and it's a good one for a team whose goaltending situation looked extremely murky entering the season. Hellebuyck's projected GSAx for the season is plus-12.2, a sizeable upgrade that firmly entrenches the Devils as one of the league's top 10 teams and one of the best defensive teams in the league. New Jersey's playoff odds jumped from 58 percent to 71 percent with the trade and its Stanley Cup odds jumped from three percent to five percent — the eighth-highest mark in the league. That's a worthwhile gamble, especially if Hellebuyck can play closer to his peak where he has the ability to save closer to 30 goals above expected (that massive difference is the projectable variance in action). If he does, the Devils are an immediate Stanley Cup contender. That leaves us with the asset allocation part of the equation. It was naturally quite hefty. Dawson Mercer is a defensively strong middle-sixer who could pop with more opportunity in Winnipeg. Alex Command was just taken 12th at last year's draft. And the Jets added goalie Nico Daws as well as depth center Nick Bjugstad and a couple draft picks. That's a fairly massive package for a goalie and the Jets deserve credit for exercising the patience to land it. Though not getting a first-round pick in the deal, even if they landed Command, is a tough blow. But at the end of the day, even with the volatility that comes with goaltending, none of those pieces have anywhere close to the impact that Hellebuyck expects to have. It's quantity for quality and the quality side always wins. Just look at last year's Quinn Hughes trade for proof. For a team that's had goalie issues for over a decade, solving that problem is well worth the seemingly high cost and it's easy to love the Devils' side of the deal here. For the Jets, it's impossible to win a deal giving up a franchise player, but the Jets did fine within that context. The best news aside from getting a decent-sized haul is that the saga is over. That's a win on its own, even if the end result is ultimately a massive blow for the franchise. Devils grade : A- Jets grade : B- Sean Gentille : Given Mehta's background, you're going to hear a whole bunch of poker analogies this afternoon. Mehta, of course, played no-limit Texas Hold'em professionally and literally wrote a book on the subject in 2007. You're also going to see plenty of callbacks to Mehta's on-the-record remarks about goaltending since he left the Florida Panthers to run the Devils. Here's what Mehta, for example, told NHL.com ahead of the regular season: “We're fortunate to have Jake Allen. He's an excellent goalie, a consummate professional and on a very good contract. (Trading Jacob Markstrom to the Panthers on July 2) made sense for where the two organizations are. It allowed us to reallocate resources, bring a fresh approach to the position and create a path for Nico Daws to show what he can do.” That path, for Daws and Allen, was about 10 games long — and whether you look at the Hellebuyck add as Mehta bluffing or playing the hand he was dealt (no more poker analogies, I promise), it was the right one. Outside of the Carolina Hurricanes and, perhaps, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Eastern Conference is a mosh pit, and the Devils are as equipped as anyone else to emerge, especially given Mehta's offseason focus on adding difference-making middle-sixers like Evangelista, Rodrigues and Mantha. A lack of quality depth helped sink New Jersey last season. The primary remaining issue was goaltending. The Devils started Friday with the second-best five-on-five expected goals against per 60 in the NHL (2.1), but the 18th-best actual goals against per 60 (2.45) and the 21st-best five-on-five save percentage (.898). They are, in short, too good a team to pin their hopes on Allen and Daws. It's possible that one or both of them could right the ship moving forward, but it's not likely; Allen has had himself a solid career, but he's 36, well past the typical age of expiration for a time-share goalie. Daws is 25, but his NHL track record largely works against him. He makes sense as part of the return on the Jets' end, at least. Mercer, meanwhile, seems to have topped out as a middle-six winger. Command, as a low-ceiling middle-six center, has some value. It's hard not to look at the package in full, though, and not feel like the Devils just acquired a dollar for a handful of dimes. On Hellebuyck's end, it's fair to wonder how he'll look in a non-Jets system, though the Devils have shown plenty of signs of creating a goalie-friendly environment. It's also fair to wonder which version shows up for the Devils. Do they get the guy who played for the Jets in 2025-26? Do they get the guy from the U.S. Olympic team? Do they get MVP Hellebuyck? Do they get playoff Hellebuyck? It's a gamble on Mehta's end — but it feels like a worthy one. Devils grade : B+ Jets grade : C Corey Pronman : Connor Hellebuyck is a three-time Vezina Trophy winner and an MVP. At the top of his game, he was the most well-rounded goalie in the NHL, showing an elite combination of size, quickness, hockey sense and compete. He took a notable step back last season and there are minor questions about whether the 33-year-old has slowed down a bit. I think reasonable expectations are that he can still be a legit No. 1 for the Devils. If he doesn't rebound, his contract becomes a minor concern but given where salaries have headed in the NHL, it's still a very reasonable number. This deal takes New Jersey, who early on have been an NHL leader in shot metrics and scoring chances but have gotten poor goaltending, into a legit contender. This is a tough deal to stomach for Jets fans. The team is rebuilding and lacked leverage in this exchange, but they don't get a premier piece for what is perceived as an elite player going the other way. Command was the 12th pick in last year's draft but he's been just fine to start this season, being productive at the junior level in Sweden but struggling to get regular SHL ice time. Command's a strong skating center with quality offensive skills. He can make creative plays with the puck, but he does so in a direct manner to the net. He also has a great shot that is a threat from mid-range. He's average-sized, but quite physical and wins a lot of puck battles. He's not overly dynamic and lacks one trait to hang your hat on as elite in the NHL but he has the potential to be a third-line center. Mercer is a player who checks a lot of boxes. He's a good enough skater, with above-average hands and hockey sense who competes well. He doesn't stand out with high-end offensive traits, but he can make plays and do so in the high-percentage areas. He can also play center or wing. He's not a high-in-the-lineup type, but he can be a steady middle-six forward for a while. Daws is an okay tandem goalie who is a below-average netminder in the NHL. He has good size, technique and reads, but lacks the quickness of an NHL-caliber goaltender and can be beat inside the paint too often. He's a backup goalie long-term. Bjugstad, who now heads to his 9th NHL team, is a huge right-shot center who skates well for his size and is highly competitive, but lacks offense. It's a lot of NHL-caliber assets going the Jets way, but it's clear they are in for a long rebuild. Devils grade : A Jets grade : C+