Forest are joint-top of the (expected points) Premier League table. What does that tell us? New York Times (Online) Paul Taylor There is a frustrating gulf between expectation and reality for Nottingham Forest. The 1-1 draw with Ipswich Town on Friday lifted them out of the bottom three ahead of the weekend's games, but it was another table that told a story. After the final whistle at Portman Road, Oliver Glasner's side sat 16th in the actual Premier League table — with those around them still to play — Forest sit joint-top of the table for their expected points ( as per FotMob, using data provided by Opta ). This data suggests Forest's performances so far under their new head coach should have earned them 14 points, which is as many as Arsenal and one more than Manchester City — with Forest having played a game more. For Forest, the main reason for the difference in positions in the two tables is well known. As Glasner said, you could almost have re-run his post-match interview from the recent defeat at Crystal Palace. Again, Forest dominated in chances created. They had 17 shots (to Ipswich's seven) and five on target (to their host's three) In the moments immediately after the game, Glasner was talking animatedly to James McAtee, seemingly telling the midfielder to keep his head up, as they wandered over to thank the travelling fans. The former Manchester City player was again outstanding and made Forest tick. Glasner then walked down the tunnel with his arm wrapped around Morgan Gibbs-White while locked in conversation with his captain. Glasner's message to his squad afterwards was also one of encouragement. “Everyone who has children will agree: when your children put huge effort into something and it does not work, you support and encourage them,” Glasner said in his press conference. “When you learn to cycle, you fall on your knees sometimes. You try and you try and things do not always work. But when your child puts effort in, you never say to them, 'You are never going to be able to cycle'. You encourage them. “I see huge spirit, togetherness and effort and that is something that has been a big change in the last few games. We always stayed positive. There was no blame. That is why I loved everything I saw today… just not the result.” The results appear similar to those that prompted managerial change last season, when Ange Postecoglou (no wins in eight games in all competitions) and Sean Dyche (two wins from his final ten Premier League games in charge) were shown the exit during a campaign that saw four different men take the helm. But despite a run of one win in seven league games for Glasner, the mood to last season is different to last season. Glasner has his team well set up and Forest look more comfortable with his 3-4-2-1 approach with each game. You sense it is only a matter of time before things fall into place, rather than fall apart. Forest's formula should have earned them more points, as the expected points table ( as per Opta ) suggests. It would not have been an injustice had Forest taken seven more points from their last four fixtures. A 1-0 defeat to Coventry should have been a draw as a minimum, Forest should have hammered Palace, in the most curious of 3-1 defeats, and Glasner's team did enough to merit a point in the 1-0 defeat to Champions Arsenal. And at Portman Road, they absolutely should have departed with an additional two points. While it may be starting to feel like Groundhog Day, there is tangible evidence that this Forest side are capable of playing good football; of creating chances. In the second half against Ipswich, Forest had 11 consecutive shots, without the home side managing one. Overall, they had an xG of 2.31. Where they fall down, not for the first time, is in translating that to a more important number: goals scored. Forest have underperformed their xG by 7.4 (six goals from an expected tally of 13.4). Neco Williams capped off a flowing counter-attack — and a wonderful cross from Daniel Munoz — to put Forest in front, before later hobbling off with an elbow injury. If he is absent for any significant period of time, he will be badly missed. Forest missed three Opta-defined 'Big Chances' to Ipswich's zero. After the goal, Ipswich keeper Christian Walton made big saves to deny Murillo and Jair Cunha, Gibbs-White and Dan Ndoye had efforts cleared off the line. Ndoye, Murillo and Liam Delap were off target with decent headed chances. At the other end, Nikola Milenkovic — restored to the starting line-up after the best part of two months out with injury — made a mistake with an under-hit back pass which allowed Julio Enciso to sneak in to equalise. That, along with a debatable decision from referee Thomas Bramall, which saw Issa Diop survive a clear claim for a red card, after hacking down McAtee as he looked to progress through on goal, only added to the sense of frustration. Bramall mystifyingly did not initially award a free kick, before being persuaded to look again at the incident by the VAR officials — after which he decided it was still only worth a yellow card. But that moment was not why Forest did not win. Gibbs-White told Sky Sports afterwards: “We have to take ownership and take our chances, but if we can keep the performances going, we will get the results.” Time for Forest to get back on the bike.